Three classic rules: save 15%, hit Fidelity milestones, withdraw 4%. Together they tell you if you are on track.
| Age | x current salary | Your target |
|---|
Six decades of academic research on US retirement planning converge on three numerical rules of thumb. Together they tell you whether you're ahead, on track, or behind — and they happen to be roughly internally consistent.
P — current balance · C — periodic contribution · r — periodic return · n — periodsReal (inflation-adjusted) numbers: at 2.5% inflation, $1.675M nominal is roughly $800k in today's dollars. Use the inflation calculator to translate.
The cumulative-savings benchmark table assumes a 15% savings rate, retirement at 67, and roughly an 85% replacement-income target. Behind the milestone means catch up by raising the savings rate, not by reaching for higher returns.
| Age | × current salary | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | 1× | Building a 5-year emergency fund of replacement income |
| 40 | 3× | Compounding starts noticeably outpacing contributions |
| 50 | 6× | Catch-up contributions ($8,000 401(k)) make a real difference |
| 60 | 8× | Enhanced catch-up ($11,250) at 60-63 under SECURE 2.0 |
| 67 | 10× | Full retirement age. 4% rule sustains 85% replacement income. |
401(k)/403(b): $24,500 employee, +$8,000 catch-up at 50+, +$11,250 super catch-up at 60-63, $72,000 combined Section 415. IRA / Roth IRA: $7,500 (under 50), $8,600 (50+). HSA: $4,400 self / $8,750 family, +$1,000 catch-up at 55+.
The 4% rule is a starting point, not a final answer. Recent research has refined the original Bengen finding for different time horizons and portfolio compositions.
| Framework | Best for | The math |
|---|---|---|
| 4% rule (Bengen 1994) | 30-year traditional retirement | 4% of starting balance, inflation-adjusted |
| 3.5% rule (Pfau, ERN) | 40-year early retirement | Same mechanics, lower starting rate for sequence-risk buffer |
| Guardrails (Guyton-Klinger) | Adaptable retirees | Cut withdrawals in down years, raise in up years |
| RMD-style | Conservative, simple | Withdraw IRS RMD divisor each year (1/life expectancy) |
| Bond-tent | Sequence-risk averse | Higher bond allocation entering retirement, glide back to equities |
All except RMD-style assume a balanced portfolio (typically 50/50 or 60/40 stocks/bonds). All-cash or all-bond portfolios fail at much lower withdrawal rates.
Each decade of delay roughly doubles the savings rate required to land at the same balance. Starting at 35 vs 25 means saving 30% vs 15% to end up in the same place — which most people can't sustain. The compound math is unforgiving.
Per the Department of Labor, ~40% of workers cash out their 401(k) when leaving an employer. The IRS taxes the distribution as ordinary income plus a 10% penalty if under 59½. A $30,000 cash-out at age 35 in the 24% bracket nets ~$19,800 — and costs ~$230,000 of compounded retirement balance over 30 years.
Retiring before 65 (Medicare eligibility) means buying ACA marketplace coverage. Premiums for a 60-year-old can run $1,000-$2,000/month before subsidies. The ACA premium tax credit phases out as income rises — many early retirees keep modified AGI low enough for full subsidy. Plan for $20-30k/year of pre-65 healthcare in your retirement budget if you're considering early.
Sources: Bengen "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data" (Journal of Financial Planning, 1994); Cooley/Hubbard/Walz "Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable" (Trinity Study, 1998); Fidelity Investments retirement research; SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022; IRS Notice 2025-67; Social Security Administration 2026 COLA announcement.
Retirement planning interacts with taxes, Social Security claiming strategy, healthcare, estate planning, and risk tolerance. The projection here bounds the financial dimension — talk to a fee-only fiduciary CFP for the full picture, especially within 10 years of retirement.
For traditional 30-year retirements, yes — Bengen's original 1994 study and the 1998 Trinity Study both held up across every historical 30-year period since 1926, and Morningstar's 2024 update confirmed the same conclusion using updated data and bond-yield assumptions. For early retirement (40-50 year horizons), most researchers including Wade Pfau and Big ERN have argued 3.25-3.5% is more defensible. The 4% is a starting withdrawal rate adjusted for inflation each subsequent year — not a flat 4% of current portfolio.
This calculator doesn't, by design. Social Security is a separate income stream and modeling it requires assumptions about claim age, benefits cuts (Trustees project the trust fund will be depleted around 2034 if Congress doesn't act, with a 17% benefit reduction following), and your specific earnings record. Average retired-worker benefit in 2026 is roughly $2,000/month. Add it as a separate annuity-equivalent on top of the 4%-rule portfolio income. The Social Security Statement at ssa.gov shows your projected benefit at 62, FRA, and 70.
Per IRS for 2026: 401(k)/403(b) employee deferral $24,500 (up from $23,500 in 2025); +$8,000 standard catch-up at 50+; +$11,250 enhanced catch-up at 60-63 under SECURE 2.0 (a $35,750 total ceiling for that age band); $72,000 combined Section 415. IRA contribution: $7,500 ($8,600 if 50+). HSA: $4,400 self-only / $8,750 family, with $1,000 catch-up at 55+.
Per Fidelity's Savings Factors: 1× current salary by 30, 3× by 40, 6× by 50, 8× by 60, 10× by 67. These targets assume a 15% gross annual savings rate (employer match counts), retirement at 67, and roughly an 85% income-replacement target. Behind earlier than the milestone? Bump your savings rate, not your expected return.
Fidelity's mainstream guidance is 15% of gross income from your mid-20s through retirement (employer match counts toward the 15%). Math behind it: at a 7% real return over a 40-year career, 15% in / 85% out approximately replaces 70-85% of pre-retirement income. The shorter the saving runway, the more you need: starting at 35 with 30 years to retirement needs ~20%; starting at 45 needs 30%+.
It compounds quietly. At 3% annual inflation, $1 today is worth about $0.55 in 20 years. The calculator's nominal projection ($1.6M, $2.0M) looks impressive but real purchasing power matters more. Two practical adjustments: (1) inflate your retirement-income target by years-to-retirement at expected inflation; (2) use a real return assumption (nominal minus inflation) — typically 4-5% real for a 60/40 portfolio. The 4% rule already builds in inflation-adjusted withdrawals.
7% nominal is the long-run consensus assumption (Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, JP Morgan capital-market expectations cluster between 6.5% and 7.5% for diversified equity-heavy portfolios over multi-decade horizons). After 2-3% inflation, that's a real 4-5%. Going more conservative (5-6% nominal) is fine for retirees nearer to drawdown. Assuming 9-10% extrapolates the unusually strong 2010s and biases the projection upward.
A target-date fund (TDF) automatically shifts allocation as the target year approaches. For most savers it's the right default because it removes the highest-leverage behavioral mistakes. Verify three things: (1) expense ratio (under 0.20% good, over 0.50% expensive), (2) glide path (Vanguard ends at ~40% equity, others go to 30%), (3) underlying funds (index vs active). Vanguard, Fidelity Freedom Index, and Schwab Target Index are the low-cost benchmarks.
It's a tax-bracket forecast. Traditional contributions reduce taxable income now (good if your current bracket is high and your retirement bracket will be lower). Roth contributions are post-tax (good if your current bracket is low and your retirement bracket will be higher). Most early-career workers in the 12-22% bracket should lean Roth; peak-earners in the 32-37% bracket should lean Traditional. The employer match always goes to Traditional regardless.
Three options. (1) Taxable brokerage — savings outside retirement accounts that can be drawn at any age with only capital-gains tax. (2) Roth IRA contributions can come out any time, tax-free and penalty-free. (3) Roth conversion ladder — convert Traditional IRA to Roth in low-income years, wait 5 years, then access penalty-free. SEPP/72(t) substantially-equal-periodic-payments works too. Most early retirees use a mix.