Tuition inflation runs ~5% per year. Compound growth runs ~7%. The math works only if you start now.
A 529 is a state-sponsored education savings vehicle named after IRC §529. Contributions go in post-tax (no federal deduction, but most states allow a state deduction or credit). Earnings grow tax-free. Qualified withdrawals — tuition, fees, room & board, books, computers, K-12 tuition up to $10k, student loan repayment up to $10k — come out tax-free. The SECURE 2.0 Act (effective 2024) added a Roth IRA rollover option for unused balances, capped at $35,000 lifetime.
i — tuition inflation (5% historical average)r — 529 portfolio return (6-7% on age-based glide path)| Sector | Tuition + fees | R&B | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public 4-yr in-state | $11,610 | $13,310 | $24,920 |
| Public 4-yr out-of-state | $30,160 | $13,310 | $43,470 |
| Private nonprofit 4-yr (avg) | $43,350 | $15,460 | $58,810 |
| Elite private (Ivy / top liberal arts) | $60,000–$70,000 | $18,000–$22,000 | $80,000–$95,000 |
Net price (after grant aid) is materially lower at most schools — the published "list price" is what fewer than half of students actually pay. Tuition inflation has averaged ~5% historically per BLS CPI-Tuition, but actual sticker growth at publics has slowed to 2-3% per year through 2025.
Parents can borrow for college; kids can't borrow for retirement. If choosing between a 529 contribution and a 401(k) contribution that captures employer match, the match always wins. The standard sequence: emergency fund → 401(k) match → high-APR debt → Roth IRA → max 401(k) → 529. The "one-third rule" exists because saving 100% of college cost typically over-prioritizes the kid at the expense of parents' retirement.
Funds withdrawn for non-qualified expenses owe ordinary income tax PLUS 10% federal penalty on the earnings portion. SECURE 2.0's $35k Roth rollover softens this materially, but only after meeting the 15-year hold period. Don't aggressively over-fund — partial funding plus the rollover safety net is usually the better play.
Direct-sold 529s (Utah's my529, NY 529 Direct, Nevada Vanguard, California ScholarShare) charge 0.10-0.30% all-in. Advisor-sold ('Class A,' 'Class C') 529s often layer 4-5% upfront sales loads or 1%+ annual 12b-1 fees on top of fund expenses — eroding decades of compounding. Morningstar's annual 529 ratings call out the worst offenders. Always compare the direct-sold option in your home state plus Utah/Nevada before signing with an advisor-sold plan.
Sources: College Board "Trends in College Pricing 2025" report; IRC §529 (qualified tuition programs); SECURE 2.0 Act §126 (529-to-Roth rollover); IRS Pub 970 (Tax Benefits for Education); FAFSA Simplification Act 2020 (effective 2024-25); Morningstar Annual 529 Plan Ratings; Vanguard / Fidelity / Schwab capital market expectations 2024-2034.
Per College Board "Trends in College Pricing 2025": public 4-yr in-state $24,920 all-in; public out-of-state ~$43,470; private nonprofit ~$58,810; elite privates $80,000-$95,000. Net price (after grant aid) is materially lower at most schools — published "list price" is what fewer than half actually pay.
State-sponsored education savings under IRC §529. After-tax contributions (no federal deduction; 30+ states offer state deduction/credit). Earnings grow tax-free. Qualified withdrawals — tuition, R&B, books, computers — tax-free at federal. Each state runs its own; you can use any state's plan, but in-state often gives a state tax deduction. Owner controls assets; beneficiary uses funds. Beneficiaries changeable to qualified family without tax consequence.
Effective 2024 under SECURE 2.0 §126: unused 529 funds rollable to a Roth IRA in the beneficiary's name, up to $35,000 lifetime. Constraints: 529 must be 15+ years old, contributions must be 5+ years old, annual rollover capped at the year's Roth contribution limit ($7,000 in 2026), beneficiary must have earned income equal to rollover. No taxes, no penalties. Effectively makes 529 over-contribution a hedge.
Per IRC §529(e): tuition + required fees; books, supplies, computers, internet for educational use; R&B if ≥half-time enrolled (capped at school's published cost-of-attendance); special-needs services; K-12 tuition up to $10k/yr (SECURE 2.0); apprenticeships; student loan repayment up to $10k lifetime per beneficiary AND $10k per sibling. NOT qualified: transportation, sports fees, health insurance.
Parent-owned 529: counted at up to 5.64% in the Student Aid Index (post-2024 EFC replacement). Student-owned: usually 5.64% as parent asset, sometimes 20% as student. Under FAFSA Simplification (2024-25), grandparent-owned 529 distributions no longer count as student income — major change making grandparent funding much more aid-friendly. CSS Profile (~200 private schools) treats grandparent 529s differently.
Three options: (1) Change the beneficiary to another qualified family member tax-free. (2) Roll up to $35k to a Roth IRA (SECURE 2.0). (3) Withdraw — earnings taxed at ordinary income rates plus 10% federal penalty; contributions return tax-free. The 10% penalty is waived for scholarship amounts (up to scholarship value), military academy attendance, beneficiary death, or disability.
Yes, in deduction states. NY deducts up to $5k/$10k MFJ at 6.85% = $342/yr per filer. Illinois up to $10k/$20k MFJ. Pennsylvania uniquely allows deduction for any state's 529. Seven no-tax states + California offer no benefit. Standard advice: use the in-state plan for the deduction unless its expense ratios are materially worse than alternatives like Utah's my529, NY 529 Direct, or Nevada's Vanguard 529.
529 wins for college-specific savings. UTMA/UGMA is custodial — child legally owns at age 18-21, can spend on anything, FAFSA assesses at 20% as student asset (vs 5.64% for parent 529). Major drawbacks unless the goal is genuinely "asset for the kid, not specifically college." For tax-efficient college savings, 529 is structurally better in nearly every dimension.
For multi-decade horizon in 529's age-based option: 6-7% nominal is standard. Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab capital-market expectations through 2034 cluster at 6-7% for 60/40 portfolios. If child is 0-5 years old, 100% equity supports 7-8% expected. Within 5 years of enrollment, glide path drops equity below 30% and expected return falls to 4-5%. Calculator's 7% default is reasonable for ages 0-10; lower to 5-6% for 12+.
Most planners recommend the "one-third rule": save 1/3 of projected cost, plan to pay 1/3 from current income during college, finance the remaining 1/3 (loans, work-study, scholarships). Aiming for 100% over-funds the 529 at the cost of retirement savings — and parents can borrow for college, but kids can't borrow for retirement. SECURE 2.0's Roth rollover gives even partial under-saving a soft landing.